Technological advancements are pushing beyond the limits of human lifespan. Will artificial organs and artificial brains grant us eternal life? We explore the future that lies beyond the Singularity.
Google engineer Ray Kurzweil believes that creating an artificial brain could give rise to a human mind. Kurzwail claims that by 2045, we will be able to perfectly replicate the human brain. Behind this radical belief lies the “Singularity” expected to arrive in 2045. A singularity is a point on a mathematical asymptote. A rapidly increasing function approaches the asymptote infinitely closely while simultaneously increasing toward infinity. The point where the asymptote lies is the singularity, and the value of the function at that point is infinity. It is easier to understand a singularity by imagining a black hole, which is a singularity in space. A black hole is like an infinitely deep well, into which stars and light fall. Kurzweil has demonstrated this by presenting data showing that humanity’s nanotechnology and information technology are advancing exponentially according to the Law of Accelerating Returns. He argues that once technology develops exponentially and reaches the singularity, humans will be able to control matter at the molecular level. Humans will gain alchemist-like abilities, enabling them to create artificial brains and organs. The challenge that the creation of an artificial brain solves is precisely the overcoming of the limits of human lifespan.
The limits of human lifespan have been studied scientifically on numerous occasions, and it has been revealed that certain substances are involved. In 1961, Hayflick discovered the limit on the number of divisions human somatic cells can undergo. Based on the fact that the average lifespan of a human somatic cell is two years, he estimated the limit of human lifespan to be 120 years. Following Hayflick’s discovery, telomeres were identified in human DNA. As somatic cells divide, telomeres shorten; once they are completely depleted, human genetic information begins to disappear. When the brain—which contains an individual’s identity—exhausts its limited capacity for division, life comes to an end. Kurzweil believes that by 2045, when the Singularity arrives, artificial brains will have been developed, allowing for the extension of human lifespan. Along with artificial brains, the development of artificial organs and highly advanced medical technology could increase human lifespan severalfold. He is known to take hundreds of different supplements in order to survive until the Singularity arrives in 2045.
Let’s envision the future society after the Singularity that Kurzweil anticipates. In the future, technology will advance to the point where virtual reality becomes indistinguishable from reality. Furthermore, as Kurzweil predicts, artificial intelligence will develop to possess intelligence a billion times greater than that of humans. Humans will be connected to an AI cloud, allowing them to indirectly access this billion-fold intelligence. Through highly advanced artificial intelligence, “superintelligence”—which, unlike humans, lacks specific purposes or frameworks—will emerge. In a superintelligent society, powerful artificial intelligence created through technology and hybrid humans connected to AI will emerge as new entities. While Kurzweil views infinite life extension as a blessing granted to every individual, in a superintelligent society, infinite life will actually hold humanity back. We will now examine the scenarios in which human immortality could have adverse effects in a superintelligence society. We will clarify why restrictions on artificial life extension are necessary in light of these inevitable and unavoidable negative consequences.
Even after the Singularity, life extension will require the replacement of not only the brain but also other vital organs. When the technology is first introduced, there will be high demand for artificial brains. Immediately after reaching the Singularity, the high demand will inevitably make life extension extremely costly. Developers like Kurzweil and those with financial means will be able to reap the benefits of this technology. If a small minority begins to monopolize the unprecedented privilege of life extension, they will fall prey to the temptation to monopolize it. In the worst-case scenario, a vicious cycle will take hold, widening the gap between the privileged elite who live long lives and the lower classes who die young. The wealthy will extend their lifespans, enjoy their prolonged lives, and gain opportunities to accumulate wealth.
With more opportunities, they can accumulate even greater wealth and further extend their lifespans. Once again, their extended lifespans provide opportunities for wealth accumulation. When this vicious cycle takes hold, class division accelerates, and the separated classes become entrenched. One might counter that this problem will be solved if life-extension technologies become widely available due to rapid technological progress at the singularity. In the long term, as life-extension technologies become cheaper, everyone will be able to enjoy a long life. However, widespread life extension creates new problems.
Let us first examine the micro-level issues caused by the extended lifespans of the majority of humanity. If life extension becomes widely available, many people may face their extended lives unprepared. Even in future societies, people will hold jobs and retire as they age. The amount of retirement savings accumulated by the time of retirement is limited. If life expectancy simply doubles, funds will be needed for the additional life span granted. For the majority, the sudden extension of life creates the risk of financial crisis due to longevity risk. With insufficient funds, an individual’s quality of life will inevitably decline significantly. Individuals facing this risk must choose between living a long life of diminished quality or opting for death. One might counter that this problem can be resolved in the long term by shifting society’s retirement age. Since everyone anticipates a doubling of life expectancy and remains physically capable even in old age, the social retirement age could be pushed back. However, this would only solve the problem for those who have just avoided retirement. As a result, there would be an abundance of experienced and healthy people who cannot find jobs. The newly born generation would have significantly less experience than the generation currently in the workforce, while their health status would be similar. Ultimately, the new generation’s competitiveness in the job market will be relatively lower, leading to severe employment difficulties. Consequently, the older generation will live longer but lower-quality lives, while the younger generation will be unable to find their place.
Let’s examine the macro-level issue of extended lifespans for everyone. If the majority of humanity lives longer, the population will inevitably increase. Looking back at human history, we can see that since the Industrial Revolution, increased human lifespan has led to population growth. After the Industrial Revolution, as life expectancy—which had been stagnant at 20 years—began to double, the population grew from 1 billion to 2 billion over the next 130 years. Thirty years later, the population exceeded 3 billion. Therefore, artificially extending life expectancy several-fold will trigger explosive population growth. If resources cannot sustain such an explosive population, there are essentially two ways to restore balance between the two: Either resources must increase, or the population must decrease. Unfortunately, material resources on Earth are limited. A significant portion of the population must be reduced. In such a situation, some will live forever, while others will lose their lives. Deciding who gets to live forever is by no means a pleasant task. Competition among people to sustain life will be triggered, and in severe cases, it could escalate into war. One might argue that if a population explosion leads to war, we could simply leave Earth and settle on another planet. However, this is physically difficult to imagine. The singularity could arrive as early as 2045. A UN future report also predicts that by 2130, human lifespans will have increased severalfold. A population explosion is expected to occur within the next 200 years. Unfortunately, planets presumed to be rich in water and oxygen—essential for human life—are located more than 200 light-years away. Mars and other planets in the solar system, which are closer to Earth, lack an atmosphere capable of supporting hundreds of millions of people and do not have lakes containing sufficient quantities of water. Since it is physically impossible to travel faster than the speed of light, reaching a resource-rich planet within 200 years is impossible. Therefore, no matter how hard humans try, the overflowing population on Earth must be managed on Earth itself.
Since humanity’s efforts to address the Earth’s population explosion actually threaten humanity itself, it is necessary to first limit life extension. By the time the Singularity arrives, virtual reality will be so advanced that it will be indistinguishable from reality. When humanity faces resource shortages, it will be able to create infinite resources within virtual reality on Earth. Virtual reality can provide humanity with surplus resources beyond the minimum required for survival. By connecting their brains to virtual reality, humans will be able to live in luxury while receiving only minimal physical nourishment. However, this raises issues regarding values and the preservation of the human race. Many people may not accept the idea of living in a fake world while only having their brains connected. Furthermore, since it is not the real world, it is impossible to produce offspring within virtual reality. One might counter that creating offspring artificially would solve this problem. However, artificially creating offspring in the real world cannot be equated with people meeting and having children in virtual reality. Offspring created for the sake of species preservation would need to be connected to virtual reality, but no such link can be found.
Superintelligence could emerge, and human brains could be connected to artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence evolves much faster than humans and possesses superior predictive capabilities. Humans are limited to sugars and lipids as energy sources, and their bodies are composed entirely of protein. In contrast, AI robots can survive on electrical energy alone and are composed of a variety of materials. In an overpopulated world, natural humans will be at a disadvantage for survival because their capabilities lag behind those of AI robots and hybrid humans. Humans will inevitably face pressure from AI in order to survive. Consequently, the majority of humans will transform into hybrid humans to secure more favorable conditions. Due to extended lifespans, a superintelligent society will eventually consist solely of hybrid humans and AI. The concept of humanity as we imagine it today will disappear into history. While one might argue that hybrid humans are still human, it is clear that they differ from the existing human race.
Humanity has long sought eternal life, and individuals harbor a desire to live longer. When the Singularity becomes a reality in the not-too-distant future, that desire can be fulfilled. However, achieving immortality for the majority of people within society—rather than just a single individual—is a complex and difficult problem. In the main body of this essay, we examined the negative impacts that immortality would have on society from various perspectives. From a social class perspective, immortality would result in varying lifespans across different social strata. If people of higher status acquire longer lifespans, they will have more opportunities to maintain their status. With more opportunities, their status becomes more entrenched, perpetuating a vicious cycle. From a micro-level perspective, there are issues such as a decline in quality of life and intense competition. Generations experiencing a sudden increase in lifespan may be unprepared and face a rapid decline in quality of life. Newly born generations may compete with older generations and experience severe employment difficulties. From a macro perspective, the issue of a population explosion becomes apparent. A population explosion leads to resource shortages, and if the situation becomes severe, war becomes inevitable. Virtual reality could be introduced as a solution to this global population explosion, but it could actually give rise to problems in other dimensions.
The various aspects examined are organically and temporally interconnected. Life-extension technology will not be widely available initially and may be concentrated among a select few, potentially creating a privileged class. The problem intensifies through a vicious cycle. If technological advancements make life extension affordable and widely available to everyone, the previous problem is resolved. However, a sudden rollout would leave unprepared generations experiencing a decline in quality of life. The reduced quality of life for the older generation increases the social burden and affects the younger generation as well. The younger generation would inevitably face severe employment difficulties. As time passes and life extension becomes the norm, the global population will explode. Resource scarcity will increase, leading to excessive competition that may even escalate into war. To solve the population problem, humanity could adopt virtual reality. This carries fewer economic and safety risks. However, it creates a society that is difficult for all humans to accept and makes the preservation of the human race difficult. Since having children is impossible in virtual reality, the human race cannot be preserved in the real world. In a superintelligent society, existing humans are at a disadvantage in the competition amid a population explosion and will be replaced by artificial intelligence. Ultimately, this leads to the problem of the extinction of the existing human race.
Linked to the Singularity era, artificial immortality triggers a series of negative problems. Even if one problem is solved, another problem that cannot be ignored will soon arise. If humanity fails to respond appropriately and history unfolds in the sequence described above, it will be difficult to turn back. Humans must devise countermeasures before the problems grow even larger. Life extension is a human instinct and holds enormous economic potential, making it difficult to ban. Therefore, we must borrow the intelligence of the superintelligent society. We must understand our reality through the intelligence and predictive capabilities of artificial intelligence, which is a billion times superior to that of humans. Using the power of AI, we must determine the maximum lifespan that we can all accept. Humanity must establish an appropriate lifespan to prevent catastrophe. This is how humanity can gain everything in a superintelligent society: by living long lives through superintelligent technology, while predicting and preventing the catastrophes that would result from excessive greed. I believe this is the best path for humanity.
