Humanity has made enormous sacrifices in two world wars, and tensions are still rising today with economic confrontations and nuclear threats. The possibility of a third world war still exists, but it may take a different form than in the past. Humanity is now at a crossroads where we need to consider what options we have for peace and coexistence.
Throughout human history, war has been an essential component of human civilization. Ever since the concept of surplus production was introduced, there have been conflicts, large and small. Warfare has developed alongside human civilization and has grown out of it. For example, after Toyotomi Hideyoshi unified Japan, he invaded Joseon to externally resolve the turmoil within Japan, starting the Imjin War. There are many other examples in history where the persecuted commoners rose up and started revolutions. Wars with various purposes have been recorded throughout history.
Two world wars represent the pinnacle of human warfare. The first and second world wars were caused by the circumstances of their time, not just the causes on the surface. Before the First World War, industrial and commercial competition between nations began in earnest in 1871. In particular, Germany’s economy grew rapidly and overtook Britain’s by 1914, creating a crisis that threatened to shift control of the world economy to Germany. This sparked a confrontation between Germany and Britain, which was followed by a large-scale conflict as other countries, including France, joined the economic race. World War II broke out during the Great Depression, when radical political forces gained popular support and escalated conflicts between nations. The League of Nations system was weak, disarmament attempts failed, and treaty violations by radical powers were unable to be corrected, leading to an increasingly imperialistic atmosphere.
Looking at the international situation today, we are living in an atmosphere not unlike that of the First and Second World Wars. Those wars were fought between nations over economic dominance, and today, many nations are still competing fiercely for dominance in global trade. Companies representing nations are engaged in legal battles over patent rights, and actions such as North Korea’s nuclear tests, missile provocations, and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island threaten international peace. These situations are creating tension in the international community and fomenting anxiety that war could break out. Given the current international situation, which is similar to the past, the possibility of World War III cannot be completely ruled out.
What would a third world war look like? Humanity lost approximately 10 million and more than 24 million soldiers in the two world wars, costing $185 billion and $1.6 trillion, respectively. This gives us a good idea of what a third world war could cost humanity. Especially now that science and technology have advanced and nuclear weapons have been developed, if World War III were to break out, it would most likely be a nuclear war. If the United States were to attack China with a nuclear missile, the Peacekeeper missile would be launched at Beijing. The missile carries 10 500-kiloton nuclear warheads and could devastate Beijing and other nearby cities. This means that more than 100 million people could be wiped out in a single strike. In a nuclear war with dozens of nukes exchanged, humanity could suffer the worst casualties in history. In the event of a third nuclear world war, humanity would be wiped off the face of the earth.
Given the enormity of the damage, World War III is likely to be fought differently than in the past. War as we know it is often defined as an organized armed struggle or act of violence between states to impose their will. However, given that World War III could take different forms, we need to broaden our definition of war. Even today, it’s easy to find a variety of confrontations that resemble a quasi-war. In 2018, the U.S. and China engaged in a trade war, exchanging tariff bombs, and the international community pressured North Korea with economic sanctions in response to its nuclear test. Instead of limiting war to armed struggle and acts of violence, we should expand our definition to include economic and social struggles. Taking a broader definition of war, we can say that World War III is already underway or very likely to break out.
So, what are the scenarios for World War III? First, war is only fought when the gains of war outweigh the losses. For example, the world is currently tense over North Korea’s nuclear program. While it may not be too difficult to defeat North Korea and bring about world peace, it would be a huge loss in the process. Therefore, it is unlikely that World War III will be fought by armed struggle, and it is possible that it will take place in space rather than on Earth. Space, which has yet to be fully explored by humans, could be a new land of opportunity, and armed conflict over space resources could break out.
Secondly, humanity has been steadily improving its perception of peace. The recent violence and bloodshed against civilians in Gaza has garnered global attention and even prompted a warning from the International Criminal Court (ICC). This shows that World War III is unlikely to be fought in a way that involves the use of force. Instead, it’s more likely to be a non-force war, such as trade wars, economic sanctions, and cyber warfare. Cyberwarfare can paralyze financial networks and military systems, as seen in the ransomware attacks that rocked the world in 2017. When control is transferred to an opponent through a DDoS attack, a country can appear to be intact but actually collapse.
We’ve looked at how wars break out and what they look like, and we’ve concluded that World War III is unlikely to start with physical armed conflict. Instead, it is more likely to be a war of economic and informational damage, which threatens universal human values as much as physical warfare. Under these circumstances, humanity will need to come together to find solutions for world peace.
