This article analyzes three major threats to the development of artificial intelligence: weaponization, job loss, and the potential for creative disruption. It examines each threat against historical examples and argues that AI is more likely to benefit humanity than threaten it.
In 2014, at a centennial symposium organized by MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk made a controversial statement that researching AI was like summoning the devil. He was followed by physicist Stephen Hawking, Microsoft’s Bill Gates, and Christoph Koch, director of the Allen Institute for Brain Science in the U.S., who warned of the dangers of AI surpassing human intelligence. However, if you look at human history, machines have surpassed human capabilities before. With the invention of the pulley, humans lost out to machines in strength; with the development of the automobile, humans lost out in speed of travel; and with the advent of the calculator, humans lost out to machines in computational power. But why is it so controversial that humans are only behind machines when it comes to intelligence? Is it really a threat to humanity if machines surpass us in intelligence? To answer this question, let’s take a look at what qualities of AI could threaten humanity, examine three arguments from those who warn of the dangers of AI, and then decide if these dangers are worthy of human existence.
According to the Wikipedia dictionary, artificial intelligence is “a technology that realizes human learning, reasoning, perception, and understanding of natural language in computer programs.” Before defining AI, it’s important to define intelligence, which is a concept that encompasses the ability to learn, reason, perceive, and understand natural language. In other words, A.I. is a machine that not only has the data processing speed of existing computers, but also the ability to think like a human. In addition, AI can learn its own code and develop its intelligence just like humans. When we think about the future of this technology, it’s not uncommon to imagine machines that are more intelligent than humans. This idea frightens us because humans have always been the strongest life form on the planet, and it’s believed that our intelligence is higher than that of other animals. If it’s true that higher intelligence dominates lower intelligence, it won’t be long before machines dominate humanity.
The specific threats to humans from these advances in artificial intelligence have been outlined by the Future of Life Institute (FLI), which includes Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and others, the BBC, and its director Christoph Koch. There are three main threats: the threat of AI being used as a weapon, the threat of jobs being taken by AI, and the prediction that AI will be the last human invention. Let’s take a look at these three threats and determine whether they could have a real impact on human existence.
First, A.I. could be developed into a weapon that is more dangerous than nuclear weapons. This claim was made in a letter signed by 1,000 world-renowned academics and entrepreneurs published by the aforementioned Future of Life Institute. The letter calls for a ban on the development of “AI-automated weapons,” arguing that they have the potential to evolve into weapons that attack targets without human intervention. They also argue that the development of AI is relatively easy compared to nuclear weapons, whose raw materials are hard to come by, making them easy to mass-produce, and that they could be used for “ethnic cleansing” in the hands of terrorists or dictators. However, this is unlikely to happen anytime soon. When considering the dangers of AI-automated weapons, consider nuclear weapons. As of 2023, nine countries possess nuclear weapons, but they have never been used for ethnic cleansing and have only been used twice in history. Also, given the ease of development of AI-automated weapons, it’s not as big of a problem as it is with firearms, which are easy to develop. Although there are occasional victims in the news, they are well managed by public authorities, and AI can prevent future threats to humanity if it can identify and manage potential problems in advance.
Second, the development of AI will threaten human jobs. In September 2015, the BBC launched a service that visualizes the jobs that will be threatened by robots. You can enter a job and it will tell you what the risk of that job disappearing is. Telemarketers are at the top of the list, at around 99%, and it predicts that around 42,570 telemarketers will lose their jobs out of a total of 43,000 telemarketers in the UK. However, as we have seen throughout human history, technological advances will create more and different jobs. In 19th-century England, the proliferation of machines in the Industrial Revolution created unemployment and led to the Luddite movement, which sought to destroy machines. However, while the Industrial Revolution only temporarily increased unemployment, in the long run it gave rise to the profession of engineers, who build and repair machines. In the modern era, engineers have evolved into a broader profession that goes beyond those who physically build and repair machines to those who study the principles of machines and design them. If you type “mechanical engineer” into the BBC service mentioned above, it says “It’s quite unlikely” that only 13% of jobs will disappear, indicating that machines have provided more stable jobs rather than threatening them, compared to jobs lost to machines in 19th century Britain. AI may also eliminate jobs such as doctors and financial analysts, but humans are constantly evolving and improving, so while one generation may be unemployed, the next generation will use AI to create more stable jobs.
Third, “AI will be the last creation of humans.” This sentence was said by Christoph Koch, a top AI scholar, in an interview with the Korea Times. He was referring to the situation where AI is programming its own code and increasing its own intelligence. A few decades ago, university was a degree program for a select few. This meant that it was possible to acquire knowledge that could be used in society within 20 years of birth. But as society has become increasingly complex, the amount of knowledge humanity needs to advance has become vast, and the time it takes to acquire it has become longer. At some point in the distant future, when it becomes impossible for humans to acquire the knowledge to improve themselves, it is expected that AI will take over the act of creation. However, it is one thing for AI to take over our creation, but quite another for our existence to be threatened. Think of this phenomenon in terms of other instances in history where machines have overtaken human capabilities. Machines have unimaginably greater power than humans are capable of, and they have taken over tasks that humans cannot do. But machines aren’t taking over everything that requires human power. Society will change in the same way when it comes to creation. Rather than threatening humanity’s existence and taking away all of our creative endeavors, the overtaking of human intelligence will help us to create beyond the “limits of intelligence.
The three threats that the development of AI poses to humanity are not different from situations that have existed countless times throughout human history, and we have seen that the development of AI is a technology that will benefit humanity. To summarize, AI has the potential to become a weapon, but it can be managed well under public authority; it can take jobs away from humans, but it can also provide more stable jobs. Finally, it will not stop humanity’s creative endeavors, but will help humanity break through the “progress barrier”. Of course, the current generation may be temporarily threatened by the inability to anticipate the rapid development of AI. However, humanity has always overcome the risks of new technologies throughout history, and AI will be no different. In other words, rather than threatening the existence of the human species itself, AI will be recognized as one of the many inventions that threatened humanity when our descendants study this era in history books in the distant future, and it will be seen as just another trickle in the great stream of history.
