This article analyzes the development of the semiconductor industry based on Thomas Kuhn’s theory of the structure of scientific revolutions, and interprets the current situation of reaching the technological limit according to Moore’s law as a crisis of normal science. This article analyzes the development of the semiconductor industry and interprets the current situation of reaching the technical limit of Moore’s Law as a crisis of normal science.
The semiconductor industry from the perspective of the structure of the scientific revolution
From the birth of the first humans to the present day, humanity has progressed at a rapid pace. The driving force behind this development has been science and technology, which has constantly led to new discoveries and innovations. From hunter-gatherers, primitive humans changed their way of survival through the use of fire, and the agricultural revolution made it possible for humans to live in settlements, which promoted the development of civilization. The Industrial Revolution gave us more efficient production systems, and today, with the transition to the Information Society, we benefit from technology in almost every aspect of our lives. In particular, since the mid-20th century, the development of science and technology has accelerated dramatically, leading to qualitative and quantitative improvements in our lives.
In his book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Thomas Kuhn states that the history of science is a series of revolutions from one paradigm to another. In fact, science and technology have developed through a series of events that can be called revolutions. Copernicus and Galilei’s theory of geodynamics, Darwin’s theory of evolution, Einstein’s theory of relativity, quantum mechanics, etc. have presented new paradigms and led to the development of current science and technology.
So, can engineering apply the theories that emerged from the structure of the Scientific Revolution? The answer is yes. Science and engineering are closely related because engineering itself is a discipline that uses scientific theories to create things that are needed in real life. The Structure of the Scientific Revolution was originally written using the natural sciences as an example, so it’s a bit cautious to extend it to engineering. However, I believe that the process of establishing a new normal scientific theory through a new paradigm can be applied to engineering as well. Therefore, I would like to apply the theory of the structure of the scientific revolution to my major, electrical engineering, especially to the field of semiconductors and integrated circuits.
A paradigm shift in the semiconductor industry
The development of the circuit field in electrical engineering began in earnest with the invention of the transistor. According to Thomas Kuhn, the invention of the transistor was a scientific revolution that opened a new paradigm. The invention of the transistor led to the invention of the computer, which in turn led to the creation of the smartphones we use today. However, after the invention of the transistor, electrical engineering entered a phase of normal science: the development of materials to make transistors work more efficiently and the miniaturization and integration of circuit elements became the main research directions.
As Moore’s Law explains, the integration of semiconductor devices has been steadily increasing. However, these advances fall into the category of normal science, leading to incremental miniaturization and performance improvements rather than a paradigm shift. Innovation in the process of optimizing performance and miniaturization based on existing technologies and principles is the inevitable result of the application of existing theories rather than a new paradigm.
In the semiconductor industry, the signs of a crisis are becoming increasingly clear. The growth of the smartphone market reached 74.4% in 2010, but since then it has gradually slowed down and is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2023. This shows that the market has reached saturation. Most consumers already own a smartphone, and as the technical differentiation between new models diminishes, so does the demand for upgrades. Innovative products such as foldable smartphones have also failed to significantly reverse the market’s growth trend, reflecting the limitations of existing technologies and the lack of new ones emerging.
In the same vein, the semiconductor industry is also facing the limits predicted by Moore’s Law. The miniaturization of devices is reaching its limits, and further increases in density will be prohibitively expensive. Some experts say that the industry is no longer efficient in miniaturizing and increasing density. This raises the possibility that we could soon be facing a crisis in normal science. If the crisis of normal science persists, a new paradigm is bound to emerge. In the semiconductor industry, new technologies are being developed to solve this crisis, and it is likely that the future semiconductor paradigm will be centered on 3D semiconductors, quantum computing, and nanotechnology.
Future prospects of the semiconductor industry
If we consider the current situation as the beginning of the crisis in the semiconductor and circuit industry, what will the future hold? According to the structure of scientific revolutions, at the beginning of the crisis, many researchers try to maintain the existing normal science. Over time, however, as the realization spreads that orthodox science is no longer sufficient to explain complex natural phenomena, revolutionary theories emerge and establish a new paradigm. This process can also be applied to the semiconductor industry.
For the time being, of course, the current research agenda will be maintained. The miniaturization of semiconductor devices will continue, allowing electronics such as smartphones and computers to evolve smaller and faster. However, the size of machines used by humans can only get so small before they become uncomfortable, and technological limits must be reached. When these limits are reached, a new paradigm will emerge that will replace the existing normal science.
The future of the semiconductor industry is positive because humans are constantly developing new technologies and solving problems, and we have already made many innovations. Considering the radical shift from the use of simple machines powered by electricity in the early 20th century to the invention of transistors and integrated circuits, it is not unlikely that a similar level of innovation will occur in the semiconductor industry in the future.
Conclusion
In this article, we have analyzed the past, present, and future of the semiconductor industry based on Thomas Kuhn’s structural theory of scientific revolutions. Currently, the semiconductor industry is reaching the limits of miniaturization and integration, which can be interpreted as the beginning of a crisis of normal science. However, this crisis could be the trigger for a shift to a new paradigm, and the semiconductor industry will continue to grow through revolutionary changes.
This future belongs to us, the electrical engineering majors. It is their greatest responsibility to discover new paradigms and develop the ability to realize them. In order for electrical engineering and the semiconductor industry to continue to develop, we will need to continue to research and innovate.
